Silicon Valley Real Estate Trends

Silicon Valley House Sales Price and Sales Price Per Sq.Ft.

The two most common measures of the Silicon Valley real estate market are sales price and sales price per sq. ft. starting about 2011. By plotting these prices on a logarithmic scale a constant percentage of change will be shown as a sloped straight line.

Santa Clara County real estate shows a nearly straight line sloped upward with a seasonal variation imposed on it. The expected 2018 increase in interest rates created a rush to buy before interest rates were increased. This resulted in a peak in early 2018 followed by almost 3 years of fairly low growth. Another expected increase in 2022 created another rush to buy and the resulting peak. With elections to be held in 2024, and the strong polarization in those running for office, there are likely to be stronger swings in prices.

The sharp rise in prices near the beginning of 2000 reflects the dot com boom. The sharp drop in 2008 was due to the subprime mortgage crisis.

Silicon Valley Home Age

Age Of Houses Sold

With very little space available to build new houses, the median age of houses sold rises following a trend of almost exactly one year with each passing year. Most new houses are the result of an existing house being replaced by a new house. With a newly constructed house having an age of zero years, the average age has been falling below the median age at an almost constant rate, which would be expected if no new large house construction projects were done.

Age Of Townhouses Sold

In early 2003 the median age of townhouses sold was about 21 years. Twenty years later in early 2023, the median age of townhouses sold was about 33 years. Significant numbers of townhouses are being constantly built in Santa Clara County.

Age Of Condos Sold

Prior to 2006, the average age of condos sold was greater than the median age of condos sold. After 2009 the average age was consistently below the median age and the gap increased with time. A low average age would result from significant numbers of new condos being sold. A low average age could also result from a significant number (but less than 50%) of condos much younger than the median age but not necessarily brand new, being sold. Imagine a new condo project selling many new condos in 2008. Then five years later in 2012 many of those condo buyers began selling their condo because they wanted to buy a house and could because of low interest rates.

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